The Prime Minister and His Party Have Lost the Plot in Bihar
Bihar, the third-largest state in India by population, is gearing up for the assembly elections later this year. The ruling coalition of Janata Dal (United) or JD (U) and Bharatiya Janata Party or BJP is facing a tough challenge from the opposition alliance of Rashtriya Janata Dal or RJD, Congress and Left parties. The stakes are high for both sides, but especially for the prime minister and his party, who have lost the plot in Bihar.
How the BJP alienated its allies and voters in Bihar
The BJP, which is the dominant partner in the National Democratic Alliance or NDA at the centre, has been accused of undermining its allies and voters in Bihar. The most prominent example of this is the treatment meted out to Chirag Paswan, the former president of Lok Janshakti Party or LJP, which was part of the NDA until last year. Paswan, who is the son of late Union minister and Dalit leader Ram Vilas Paswan, had openly expressed his admiration for the prime minister and his desire to see him as the leader of the country. However, he had also voiced his dissatisfaction with the performance and attitude of Nitish Kumar, the chief minister of Bihar and the head of JD (U).
Paswan had fielded candidates from his party against JD (U) in the 2020 assembly polls, hoping to dent its vote share and pave the way for a BJP-led government in Bihar. He had also claimed that he had the tacit support of the BJP leadership for his move. However, the BJP had denied any such understanding and stuck to its alliance with Nitish Kumar, who was sworn in as the chief minister for a fourth consecutive term after a close contest. Paswan's party had won only one seat out of 243, but had managed to reduce JD (U)'s tally from 71 in 2015 to 43 in 2020.
The BJP's betrayal of Paswan did not go down well with many of its supporters, especially among the Dalits, who constitute about 16% of Bihar's population. Paswan's party has a strong base among a section of Dalits called Paswans or Dusadhs, who are also loyal to the BJP. The BJP's decision to sideline Paswan also angered his uncle Pashupati Kumar Paras, who is a Union minister and a Lok Sabha MP from Hajipur. Paras led a revolt against Paswan and took over the LJP with the support of five out of six MPs of the party. He also joined hands with Nitish Kumar and became a part of the NDA in Bihar.
The BJP's treatment of Paswan has not only weakened its alliance with LJP, but also strained its relations with JD (U). Nitish Kumar, who is known for his pragmatic politics and shifting loyalties, has been unhappy with the BJP's interference and dominance in Bihar. He has also blamed the BJP for using Paswan as its "agent" to weaken him in the 2020 polls. He has recently hinted at joining hands with other regional parties and forming a third front ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. He has also criticised the central government's handling of various issues such as COVID-19 pandemic, farmers' protests, inflation and unemployment.
The BJP's arrogance and mismanagement have also alienated many voters in Bihar, who are unhappy with the state of affairs in the state and the country. Bihar is one of the poorest and most backward states in India, with low levels of human development indicators such as literacy, health, sanitation and income. The state has also been hit hard by natural disasters such as floods and droughts, as well as by social unrest such as communal violence and caste conflicts. The state has also witnessed a massive exodus of migrant workers due to lack of opportunities and livelihoods.
The BJP's promises of development and good governance have failed to materialise in Bihar, where corruption, crime and nepotism are rampant. The state government has been accused of fudging data on COVID-19 cases and deaths, as well as on vaccination coverage. The state government has also been criticised for failing to provide adequate relief and compensation to the flood-affected people and farmers. The state government has also been accused of neglecting education, health and infrastructure sectors.
Why the opposition alliance has an edge over the NDA in Bihar
The opposition alliance of RJD, Congress and Left parties has emerged as a formidable force against the NDA in Bihar. The alliance is led by Tejashwi Yadav, the son of former chief minister and RJD supremo Lalu Prasad Yadav, who is currently serving a jail term in a corruption case. Tejashwi Yadav has proved himself as a charismatic and dynamic leader, who has managed to revive his party's fortunes after a dismal performance in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, when it had failed to win a single seat out of 40.
Tejashwi Yadav has successfully tapped into the discontent and aspirations of the young and unemployed voters in Bihar, who form a large chunk of the electorate. He has also reached out to the marginalised and oppressed sections of the society, such as Dalits, Muslims and backward castes, who have been feeling neglected and discriminated by the NDA government. He has also forged a strong alliance with the Congress and the Left parties, who have a loyal and dedicated base of supporters in Bihar. He has also maintained a cordial relationship with Nitish Kumar's former ally Chirag Paswan, who has extended his support to the opposition alliance.
Tejashwi Yadav has also presented a clear and coherent vision for Bihar's development and welfare, which has resonated with the masses. He has promised to create 10 lakh jobs, waive off farmers' loans, provide free education and health care, and ensure social justice and harmony. He has also highlighted the failures and shortcomings of the NDA government, both at the state and the centre, and exposed its lies and propaganda. He has also challenged the prime minister's credibility and popularity, and questioned his silence on various issues affecting the people.
Conclusion
The upcoming assembly elections in Bihar will be a crucial test for both the NDA and the opposition alliance. The NDA will have to overcome its internal differences and conflicts, and regain the trust and confidence of its allies and voters. The opposition alliance will have to sustain its momentum and unity, and convert its popularity into votes. The prime minister and his party will have to face the reality of their declining influence and appeal in Bihar, where they have lost the plot.
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